Liftoff with Jeanniey Walden
Dan Larkman of Keynes on CTV, Attribution, and What Makes Ads Work
Who’s on this episode
Hosted by Jeanniey Walden, founder and host of Liftoff with Jeanniey Walden.
What you’ll learn
- How CTV went from a channel nobody understood to being everywhere.
- Why CTV should be a primary, integrated channel, not an add-on.
- How to measure CTV with incrementality instead of last-click.
- The three things that get a CFO to approve a CTV budget.
- Why the first three to five seconds of an ad decide everything.
- How to target a shared living-room TV.
Episode highlights
- Launching Keynes in 2018, at the very start of CTV
- How COVID supercharged CTV, and made it competitive
- Add-on or primary channel? The real differentiator
- One device vs 200 networks: why CTV changes paid strategy
- Attribution: why last-click is the wrong lens for CTV
- Winning the CFO’s sign-off over the right time horizon
- The second screen, and the first five seconds
- Made-for-TV vs repurposed creative: a 7x difference
- It’s the audience, not the show
- Targeting the shared living-room TV
Episode summary
Dan Larkman launched Keynes in 2018, right at the dawn of connected TV, back when Netflix was the story and most of his job was explaining what CTV even was. It was a wild ride, he says, from that education phase to a world where CTV is on every conference floor and billboard. COVID poured gasoline on the category, advertising to people at home was suddenly the easiest thing in the world, but coming out of it the marketplace turned fiercely competitive, and success started to require genuinely differentiated capabilities rather than just being in the room.
The core question Larkman keeps returning to is whether CTV is an add-on or a primary channel. The market runs the full range, from self-serve tools that oversimplify CTV to direct deals, and Keynes sits at the outcomes end. His argument for why CTV deserves primary status is a math problem: where a platform like Meta effectively runs on one device, CTV spans roughly 200 TV networks and streams across mobile, tablet, and PC, and once you layer in audiences the number of tests multiplies fast. The opportunity is to build real optimization on top of that complexity and to stop treating any single channel as a silver bullet, integrating CTV with paid search and paid social. On the question that always comes up, attribution, he is blunt that the mistake has been judging CTV on lower-funnel, last-click metrics. Because CTV has been democratized, marketers trained on last-click direct response cling to customer acquisition cost as their safe space, but CTV straddles branding and performance and should be measured with true incrementality and advanced measurement like media mix modeling, so you see the real impact on the business rather than just the last touch.
The back half gets practical. To win a CFO, Larkman says to look at total spend over a real horizon, two, three, or six months, because judged over a single week for efficiency you’ll hate it, and to bring data and insights the finance team hasn’t seen before. On creative, he assumes everyone watching TV has Instagram in their hand, so the first three to five seconds have to earn a viewer lifting their head, and the rest of the spot has to sell. He shares a striking data point: the same creative performed seven times worse when it was repurposed rather than built for TV, though AI tools can now turn social content into ads that genuinely belong on TV. He also dismantles a myth, it doesn’t matter what show your ad airs against, only what audience you target, since the same person carries the same buying behavior into a prestige drama or a guilty-pleasure show, and you can often reach them on a fifteen-dollar CPM instead of a seventy-dollar one. Finally, on the shared living-room TV, he explains that the email address logging in is the core identifier and Keynes leans on multiple signals, including browsing behavior, for true cross-device targeting rather than relying on IP alone.
Key takeaways
- Keynes launched in 2018 at the start of CTV; the job went from explaining what CTV was to seeing it everywhere, on floors and billboards.
- COVID made CTV boom because advertising to people at home was easy; post-COVID it turned competitive and demanded differentiated capabilities.
- The real differentiator is whether CTV is an add-on or a primary channel; Keynes plays at the outcomes end, not oversimplified self-serve.
- Meta effectively runs on one device; CTV spans roughly 200 networks across mobile, tablet, and PC, so optimization and integration with paid search and social matter more than any silver-bullet channel.
- Attribution is the number-one question; the mistake is judging CTV on last-click. It straddles branding and performance and should be measured with true incrementality and media mix modeling.
- To win a CFO: judge CTV over two, three, or six months, not a single week, and bring new data and insights that show where it sits in the funnel.
- Assume every viewer has a phone in hand; the first three to five seconds must drive attention, then the rest of the ad has to sell.
- Made-for-TV creative wins: the same creative performed seven times worse when repurposed, though AI tools can now make social content TV-ready.
- It’s the audience, not the show; the same person buys the same way regardless of what they watch, and can be reached on a 15-dollar CPM instead of 70.
- On shared TVs, the login email is the core identifier; Keynes uses multiple signals like browsing behavior for true cross-device targeting, not IP alone.
Questions people ask
Who is Dan Larkman?
Dan Larkman is the CEO and Founder of Keynes, a connected TV advertising company he launched in 2018 at the very start of the CTV era. He is a widely cited voice on CTV strategy, measurement, and creative.
Is CTV a primary channel or an add-on?
Larkman argues CTV should be a primary, integrated channel, not an add-on. Where a platform like Meta runs on effectively one device, CTV runs across roughly 200 TV networks and streams on mobile, tablet, and PC, so the opportunity is to build real optimization and outcomes and integrate CTV with paid search and paid social rather than treating any single channel as a silver bullet.
How should you measure CTV and attribution?
Larkman says the mistake is judging CTV only on lower-funnel, last-click metrics like customer acquisition cost. CTV straddles branding and performance, so it should be measured with true incrementality and advanced measurement such as media mix modeling, which shows the real impact on the business rather than just the last touch.
How do you get a CFO to approve a CTV budget?
Larkman’s advice: look at total spend over a real time horizon, not a single week. Judged over one week for efficiency you will hate it, but over two, three, or six months you will see success. Bring data and insights the finance team hasn’t seen before, and work with them to show where CTV sits in the funnel.
What makes a CTV ad drive attention?
The first three to five seconds. Larkman assumes everyone watching TV has a phone in their hand, so the ad has to earn a viewer lifting their head from Instagram, then the rest of the spot has to sell. He also notes made-for-TV creative matters: the same creative performed seven times worse when it was repurposed rather than built for TV, though AI tools can now turn social content into TV-ready ads.
Does it matter what show your CTV ad airs against?
No, Larkman says it matters what audience you target, not the show. The same person has the same buying behavior whether they are watching a prestige drama or something they would be embarrassed to admit, so you can often reach them on a 15-dollar CPM show instead of a 70-dollar one.
How do you target a shared living-room TV?
It’s tricky because a TV is a shared device used by a mom, dad, or child. Larkman says the email address logging in is the core identifier, and Keynes uses multiple signals, including browsing behavior, for true cross-device targeting rather than relying on IP addresses alone, which helps separate shared devices from personal ones.
Full transcript
Jeanniey Walden: Welcome back. I’m here with Dan Larkman, CEO of Keynes, and we’re going to have a great conversation about everything that is happening in CTV. Welcome to Liftoff.
Dan Larkman: Thank you for having me.
Jeanniey Walden: So, Dan, tell me, how long have you been involved in the CTV industry?
Dan Larkman: Well, I launched Keynes in 2018, and it was really at the beginning of CTV. You really had Netflix. It was a wild ride, from trying to explain what CTV was to it being impossible to miss, seeing CTV everywhere on the floor, on the billboards, everywhere.
Jeanniey Walden: I can only imagine. You must have seen so much change from when you started into the COVID era. I think that’s when CTV really got crazy. Advertising to someone at home was the easiest thing.
Dan Larkman: Yeah, absolutely. And then coming out of COVID, it became more challenging because it became a very competitive marketplace. It became a place where you were required to have differentiated capabilities in order to be successful.
Jeanniey Walden: So how did you continue to drive success?
Dan Larkman: You hit the nail on the head. When we think about CTV, it went from a couple of companies to everyone, direct mail at CTV, email at CTV. Like I said, you see CTV everywhere. I think the differentiators are: is CTV an add-on or is it the primary channel? When you look at the market, there’s a wide range, from a self-serve tool that’s oversimplifying the CTV landscape all the way through to direct deals. For us, we’re thinking about outcomes for brands. If you’re running on Meta, you’re running on one device, mobile, effectively. If you’re running on CTV, you’re running across 200 TV networks, potentially streaming on mobile, tablet, PC, four devices, and then you’ve got the audiences. The number of tests just keeps multiplying. So when we think about that, it’s about how you build optimization and drive true outcomes for a brand, but also how it impacts all paid thinking. I think we’ve gotten past the stage of one channel being a silver bullet; CTV should be integrated with paid search and paid social.
Jeanniey Walden: As we were talking earlier, I’m a CMO by trade. CTV versus linear doesn’t come up as frequently as it used to, but attribution always comes up. Where do you think attribution around CTV is best measured? Do you think it’s a throughout-the-funnel brand amplifier play?
Dan Larkman: That’s probably the number one question that comes up. It’s not linear for me; they both run video on a screen, but the metrics and optimization change. The mistake has been that everyone’s focused so much on lower-funnel metrics because CTV has been democratized, any brand of any size can now run on it. Marketers used to running last-click direct response are used to knowing their customer acquisition cost. That’s their safe space. CTV straddles the line between branding and performance. If you really want to measure it, you should use things like true incrementality and advanced measurement, like media mix modeling. You’re going to see the impact it has on your business, not just as your last touch.
Jeanniey Walden: So if I’m the CFO of a company, what three things are you going to say to me so that I sign off on this CTV campaign?
Dan Larkman: I’m going to say you need to look at the market. Look at everything you’re spending over a period of time. If you spend money for a week and you’re looking for efficiency, you’re going to hate it. But if you look at this over a two-, three-, or six-month period, you’re going to see success. A lot of the conversation involves bringing data and insights they haven’t seen before to help them with their overall marketing, and working with their team to see where it sits within the funnel.
Jeanniey Walden: Let’s shift to multitasking with CTV. Do you know anybody who sits down and just watches TV anymore without a phone or another device on? What is that multi-device impact you’re seeing?
Dan Larkman: We actually review TV commercials, and one of the big variables is: do you drive attention? When I was a kid, you’d guess who the commercial was for. If you’re a new brand, you really need to introduce yourself. The first thing you want, in the first three to five seconds, is to drive attention. Why am I going to put my phone down and lift my head? I have to assume anyone watching TV has Instagram in their hand. What makes me look up? That’s a crucial variable. The rest of the commercial has to sell. It’s flipped from the traditional model.
Jeanniey Walden: What should we expect with the advent of the creator economy? Are we seeing more interest in agency spots versus a mom in her car freaking out about something?
Dan Larkman: It depends on how professional it is. There’s a variable: if the ad looks like it shouldn’t be on TV, it doesn’t perform as well. I can tell you with data, we had the exact same creative in a made-for-TV commercial and one that had been repurposed, and it performed seven times worse when it wasn’t made for TV. But there are AI tools now where you can take content created for reels and turn it into a TV commercial that looks like it belongs on TV. That’s the art.
Jeanniey Walden: My last question is: does it matter what show your ad is airing against?
Dan Larkman: No. It matters what audience you’re targeting. I joke with everyone, when you’re in the car by yourself, you might be listening to music you’d be embarrassed for others to hear. If you’re watching TV by yourself, there might be a show you wouldn’t watch with your spouse because they’d laugh at the bad acting. It doesn’t matter what the show is; I’m still the same person with the same buying behavior. Can I be reached on that show versus trying to find me on a show that’s a seventy-dollar CPM? You can find me for fifteen dollars on a cheaper show.
Jeanniey Walden: Okay, I lied, one more. With CTV, you have families logging in. How do you target when it could be the mom, the dad, or the child?
Dan Larkman: That’s where it gets tricky; it’s a shared device. But you can still target. The email address logging in is the core identifier, but the device is the same. We use multiple signals to tell us who that user is. It’s linked to browsing behavior. True cross-device doesn’t use just IP addresses; it uses multiple signals to help us navigate that shared device versus personal devices.
Jeanniey Walden: Very cool. Thank you so much for coming on with us. This has been a fascinating conversation.
This conversation was recorded for Liftoff with Jeanniey Walden and lightly edited for readability.
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